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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.