Pitches, Bowling Tools and Reserves β The Areas Where the Ashes Will Be Won and Lost
Just 48 hours to go.
England's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.
With the help of cricket statistics experts, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.
It's tough to score runs, right?
Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.
A lot of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".
Regarding batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.
There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.
Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.
Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.
A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.
A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to more seam movement.
Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.
Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.
Test cricket is about problem solving.
When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.
If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.
Whatβs happening with the Australia seamers?
For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.
Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.
Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 series.
Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.
Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.
On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average below 17.
In addition to Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.
Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.
The last time Australia went into a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.
The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.
On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected β The tourists should take heed.
Challenging Openings
Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?
Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.
Not anymore.
Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has produced more runs together.
Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.
Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for four, has also been identified as having the technique for Australia.
His batting average rises when the pace increases.
By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.
After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 matches.
Yet to debut Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.
It is not just the openers that has posed issues for Australia.
Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.
Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.
In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.
Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.
Battle of Spin
For two so evenly-matched teams, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger β spin.
Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.
Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.
It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.
During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.
Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.
Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?
It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.
In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.
Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.
Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.
Favorable Conditions?
The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.
The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.
Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.
The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.
Then comes Perth, a city England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.
This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under altered conditions.
The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca β site of past English struggles β but the shiny new Perth Stadium.
It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no historical baggage.
Brisbane is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.
The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.
Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.
Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.
The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.
The home side have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the one defeat came in the most recent match β against India last year.
Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.
England often overthink floodlit Tests, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.
The issue in {day-night matches|
