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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple formula. It commonly functions as a type of apology. Sorry we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a direct path: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence receives the award. In practice, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or simply the most shocking surprise.

However the current race is distinctly different. The list of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and longtime underperformers improving in unison. During an ordinary season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and fun year, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a steady helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide-open targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee after his early public appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still